I refer to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of Ukraine. She has this morning adopted that most noteworthy of Ukrainian political tactics 'being rushed to hospital'. Ukrainian politicians are always being rushed to hospital, unavailable from their sick beds, rather than be in a position to do, or not do, anything when put on-the-spot. For Ukraine-watchers, it is a frequent tactic.
The newswire of Business New Europe takes up the story:
"Ukraine Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is hospitalised with flu, according to statements made by Ukraine's vice prime minister Oleksandr Turchynov on Channel 5... President Viktor Yushchenko had charged her with full repayment of Ukrainian debts to Gazprom before a deadline of 10 a.m., March 3, but her hospitalization looks set to stall this.
""Being a woman of character, she tried to come to work again and was taken to hospital literally from her workplace," Turchynov said. Her hospitalization follows Yushchenko sending a telegram to Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko yesterday, stating that she had failed to adhere to the Moscow agreements and demanding, according to Interfax, she "take urgent and exhaustive measures to pay Ukraine's debt for the gas consumed. The government must fulfill all high-level agreements."
"Tymoshenko was due to personally report to Yushchenko on implementation of his order's execution today at 9 a.m, according to Kommersant. Whereas Yushchenko reached an agreement February with Russia President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom for Ukrainian gas distributor Natftogaz Ukrainy to repay its debts, Tymoshenko has been dragging her feet over implementing the agreement, causing Gazprom to set a deadline for March 3, after which gas supplies to Ukraine will be cut by 25%."
Meanwhile, excellent UKR blog, Foreign Notes, today has a heart-rending little crie de coeur about the stress she is under: 'no wonder she is ill' ...
Why of course, March 3rd.
The day after (Gazprom Chairman) Dmitry Medvedev - who's been trying to cast himself as a progressive - wins the Russian Presidency by a vast landslide, the world is reminded of how horrid is the Russian bear as poor defenceless, pro-Western, 'European' little Ukraine has its gas switched off (sic) again by big, bad, greedy Gazprom.
It's propaganda people: from Langley to Kyiv by way of Wag the Dog.
How dumb do the US-funded Russophobes think we all are? Dumb enough, I guess, dumb enough. Because you just know the wailing the BBC and others will plod along with.
Showing posts with label Ukrainian politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukrainian politics. Show all posts
Thursday, 28 February 2008
Monday, 28 January 2008
In pursuit of further randomness
At 04.00 am the snow-plough that helpfully clears our streets of this weekend’s heavy fall slightly prangs the Lexus parked below my bedroom window: its owners sleep more heavily than me so I listen, sing-songly, to the car alarm for 24 minutes (2 ½ minutes of alarms, in nicely varying tones, followed by a thirty second interval of silence, before it starts all over again).As the snow-plough withdrew, taking what I guess was a fender with it; it made a soothingly crunching sound…
So, 04.09 am, I find myself thinking about ruble re-valuation – apropos yesterday’s post – it comes to me that there is a very good reason for Russia to re-value.
The Ruble is storming in the forex markets; and structurally has lots of strength to come. Russia hates the US dollar ideologically and, given its last four years’ performance against the RUR, Russia hates it financially as well.
An OPEC-for-gas between Russia, Iran and Qatar (that gas-field with a flag) is looking more likely. But would they want to price gas in USD? They would not. If you had an OPEC-for-gas it would be their choice as to their pricing currency. The Euro is a possibility, but ideologically, the Euro is hardly more popular with either Russia or Iran.
Why not piece gas/MMbtu in Rubles? You revalue the Ruble – at, let’s say 1 RUR = US$4 – and then it makes a good reserve currency for gas. And Iran would love it. Qatar would not object. Ruminations on Russia had a pithy comment on why an OPEC-for-gas should not work; but since when did economics get in the way of ideology?
And why not change the reserve currency for oil? You see Venezuela complaining? (actually, I think China and Japan would, so scrap that). And friends in the Gulf tell me the Emirates and Saudi are sick of their currencies, pegged to oil prices of course and therefore to the USD, slip-sliding as well.
The Ruble as the reserve currency for hydro-carbons? Oh yes. Definitely a possibility. And a *huge* political win in Russia. Instant hero-status for a newly-minted President Medvedev: “Russia *is* the beating heart of the world economy” etc. Fab spin.
Separately, a great brokers’ note from RenCap today, on matters Ukrainian:
“The government has prepared a decree allowing customs and the tax service to countermand 'illegal' court rulings….
“The aim of the new measure is to reduce corruption in the judiciary, sending a message to bribers that the rulings for which they pay will not be enforced, and to judges that they will be held more accountable in future.
“Though the intention is laudable, we think any measure that allows court rulings to be ignored, no matter how exceptional the circumstances, is a fundamental threat to the rule of law and gravely misguided. Unless the government provides substantial clarifications as to how its idea will work, it risks sending the wrong signals to the investment community and electorate alike.”
Personal experience reminds me – having had a client on the shit-end of this stick – you can buy a Ukrainian Supreme for about $50k a decision. Remind me, why was the Orange revolution such a break with the past?
Democracy, with out an independent judiciary, is not progress at all. There is no democracy without rule of law. And there is, literally, more rule of law in Russia.
Blogging tonight in my usual haunt – memo to self: sort out home Wi-fi – I can barely hear myself think. There are only 11 people in the bar. Six of them, sitting together, are damn near shouting. Every other word is ‘f******’; they are drunk and being staggering sexist; indifferent to the fact that all the staff speak fluent English. These are braying, arrogant, appalling expats: 40 minutes in their company and I am coming round to Zhirinovsky’s POV.
PS: if you are about to do business with CB Richard Ellis in Moscow, tell them to have their boys learn how to behave when out in public (the downside, boys, of loud, drunken conversations is we know who you are!). Although illuminating to hear one of you say: “I won’t get out of bed for any deal worth less than 1,000 sqm to me”; which at current market rates I calculate is about $83,000. Tossers!
Thursday, 31 May 2007
Corpses: metaphorical and real
In Ukraine - and, yes, I recognise that Red-Exile these days writes about as much on UKR as on RUS, but whatever - Yuschenko seems to be about to grab total-defeat from the jaws of mere humiliation: the Rada seems to have him dangling on a rope. A late night email exchange may give some little clue as to why:
[my man in Kyiv, 12.54 am MSK]: "Yanukovich said 'f*** you' to Yushchenko at midnight [Midnight Wednesday - Exile] and slammed the door. Timoshenko is partnering with Yanukovich to impeach the President. Never endless fun..."
[Exile, in reply]: "Yulia Timoshenko knows now that White House support is hers for the grasping, because they’ve lost confidence in Yush. Yush is finished as a serious political force."
Meanwhile, frankly gormless alleged murder, Andrei Lugovoi, has reached new depths of absurdity in proclaiming his innocence... Not least because - as any former member of the KGB's First Chief Directorate (now independently run as the SVR) would know: UK SIS ('MI6') never, ever plots to kill people...that's what we have the SAS for (LOL)...
Personally, I am bored of the Litvinenko thing. I haven't seen anything yet to go against my belief that someone in the Oligarch diaspora - not necessarily old-barking-Berezovsky - paid for some keystone cop hangovers to mount an operation more than anything likely to embarrass VVP in the eyes of the world. Not least, as they correctly guessed, they would be caught and could rely on the fact that the Kremlin would never allow extradition of a former KGB officer; even one who only served only in the relatively lowly 'ninth directorate' (the Securicor of the KGB). It leaves the Kremlin exactly where the plotters want: looking guilty, totally framed.
[my man in Kyiv, 12.54 am MSK]: "Yanukovich said 'f*** you' to Yushchenko at midnight [Midnight Wednesday - Exile] and slammed the door. Timoshenko is partnering with Yanukovich to impeach the President. Never endless fun..."
[Exile, in reply]: "Yulia Timoshenko knows now that White House support is hers for the grasping, because they’ve lost confidence in Yush. Yush is finished as a serious political force."
Meanwhile, frankly gormless alleged murder, Andrei Lugovoi, has reached new depths of absurdity in proclaiming his innocence... Not least because - as any former member of the KGB's First Chief Directorate (now independently run as the SVR) would know: UK SIS ('MI6') never, ever plots to kill people...that's what we have the SAS for (LOL)...
Personally, I am bored of the Litvinenko thing. I haven't seen anything yet to go against my belief that someone in the Oligarch diaspora - not necessarily old-barking-Berezovsky - paid for some keystone cop hangovers to mount an operation more than anything likely to embarrass VVP in the eyes of the world. Not least, as they correctly guessed, they would be caught and could rely on the fact that the Kremlin would never allow extradition of a former KGB officer; even one who only served only in the relatively lowly 'ninth directorate' (the Securicor of the KGB). It leaves the Kremlin exactly where the plotters want: looking guilty, totally framed.
Tuesday, 29 May 2007
Moscow cheers as Yuschenko implodes…and other weekend Eurasian mayhem
On the face of it, it's not been a 'great' start to the week in any of the countries in my 'patch'...
Kyiv went to the brink and back this weekend, yes? Well, not quite. There was, frankly, something quite Wag the dog about the breathless news reporting I watched on the BBC and CNN, in our Kyiv apartment and the streets of Kyiv itself. I scarcely saw any troops and there seemed no more security on the streets than usual.
When Mr Orange Revolution grabbed control over the Interior Ministry troops – memo to wannabe democracies: why do you need 40,000 ‘interior ministry’ troops if not to use against your own people? – and summoned them to Kyiv he looked, if just for a moment, as bad as the Kuchma regime he had replaced.
Sunday, of course, we all woke up to see that Yush and Yank have finally agreed an election date. But here’s what I heard Sunday: the American, German and Polish governments were furious with Yuschenko – summoning troops to Kyiv? Way bad move! – and the US told him it would ‘pull the plug’, more or less publicly, on backing him further. Faced with that calamity, President Yuschenko had no choice but to cave in and accept Prime Minister Yanukovych’s proposed date for Verkhovna Rada elections.
If this is your thing do check out Foreign Notes, the Ukrainian political blog in English which has been quite brilliant on this stuff recently.
Events having rather overtaken things, my lunch Friday with a sometime Yuschenko adviser (an economist running a local NGO) now seems rather academic; but these gobbets are maybe worth passing on:
- There is no meaningful electoral law in Ukraine and no-one is legitimate; the constitution is something of a farce and is not a sustainable rulebook for what happens next
- The Supreme Court is a useless hive of cronies and “neither side” [there are only two sides? - Exile] sets much store in what it says; if it actually says something (the cronies go-run-hide when real chaos emerges).
- People on both Orange and Blue sides are coming round to the idea that there needs to be a Constitutional Convention, before the Elections, to decide which of the laws passed by the, technically dismissed, Verkhovna Rada to keep – some are quite good - as well as to agree a proper electoral law
- The move to ‘Parliamentary’ over Executive Presidential government seems unstoppable
- At some point, one side has to lose and that will be when the ‘fun’ will begin.
Yuschenko? Sell / Yanukovych becoming a statesman in spite of himself? Buy
Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, Dariga Nazarbaeva and her husband, Rakhat Aliyev, have finally cut the cord and are striving for political power themselves. Now, personally, I think the son-in-law is a scum-bag (only my opinion, natch, and one I'll have to...ahem...revise, I guess, if he emerges victorious) and my people in Astana say some serious locals are backing away from her Institute of International Modern Politics (the well-funded, if shadowy, ‘NGO’ that is really her prototype opposition party HQ): daughter number one seems to have seriously miscalculated.
Kazakhstani Offspring? Sell.
Whatever else you might think about her father – no prize from the Kennedy School of Government for developing pluralist democracy, maybe – Nursultan Nazarbayev is probably the best and most successful statesman to have emerged from the collapse of the USSR: and yes, that includes VVP. He is genuinely respected amongst the Kazakhstani, especially the ethnic Kazakhs, and has prevailed over staggering economic transformation and a much better civil rights environment than any of the other ‘Stans.
President for Life? Buy
Meanwhile, in Moscow – to which I flew back Sunday night - apparently the gays had been at it again…lemming-like, a small band seems intent on inviting disaster upon themselves. This annual ‘gay riot’ photo-opportunity has already got tiresome… Personally I think every ‘world city’ benefits from a pink-quartier, but this is Moscow, people. Never, ever, here.
Civil rights are a tricky thing. Martin Luther King dragged America towards the civilized treatment of its fellow citizens. But for him, and heroes like Rosa Parks, American blacks would not have the civil rights they have today (whether they can afford to enjoy them being, of course, another thing….). They got those rights through protest.
But in the case of gay rights, the Russian gay community has to consider this: it is clinging on to the decriminalization of homosexuality by its fingertips. By going out to ask for more rights, it might just lose the one ‘right’ it has.
As I recall, a Bill, introduced February 12th by Liberal Democratic Party Deputy, Nikolai Kuryanovich, sits before the State Duma to repeal the decriminalization of homosexuality. So far, I believe, the Government lets it linger there actif, mais en repose. Kuryanovich – who is not exactly the most liberal human being imaginable – has a penchant for popularist legislation: not long ago he proposed stripping citizenship for any Russian woman who married a foreigner.
This is not an area of policy I follow, but I think there is a 30-40% chance that, if United Russia senses that an extra dose of popularist measures is needed before the Duma elections in December, the Bill could well be activated and passed. Such a move would be wildly popular with the Russian electorate – the bit that actually votes that is - which would never have supported the decriminalization of homosexuality in the first place (one of the noteworthy examples, actually, of how Yeltsin’s Young Turks led liberalism in Russia, rather than reflected it).
Rather than protest in the streets, Russian gays would be best advised to lay low until this political cycle is over and the Duma/Presidential elections completed. Alternatively, they might consider moving abroad.
La vie en rose? Hold/Sell
Kyiv went to the brink and back this weekend, yes? Well, not quite. There was, frankly, something quite Wag the dog about the breathless news reporting I watched on the BBC and CNN, in our Kyiv apartment and the streets of Kyiv itself. I scarcely saw any troops and there seemed no more security on the streets than usual.
When Mr Orange Revolution grabbed control over the Interior Ministry troops – memo to wannabe democracies: why do you need 40,000 ‘interior ministry’ troops if not to use against your own people? – and summoned them to Kyiv he looked, if just for a moment, as bad as the Kuchma regime he had replaced.
Sunday, of course, we all woke up to see that Yush and Yank have finally agreed an election date. But here’s what I heard Sunday: the American, German and Polish governments were furious with Yuschenko – summoning troops to Kyiv? Way bad move! – and the US told him it would ‘pull the plug’, more or less publicly, on backing him further. Faced with that calamity, President Yuschenko had no choice but to cave in and accept Prime Minister Yanukovych’s proposed date for Verkhovna Rada elections.
If this is your thing do check out Foreign Notes, the Ukrainian political blog in English which has been quite brilliant on this stuff recently.
Events having rather overtaken things, my lunch Friday with a sometime Yuschenko adviser (an economist running a local NGO) now seems rather academic; but these gobbets are maybe worth passing on:
- There is no meaningful electoral law in Ukraine and no-one is legitimate; the constitution is something of a farce and is not a sustainable rulebook for what happens next
- The Supreme Court is a useless hive of cronies and “neither side” [there are only two sides? - Exile] sets much store in what it says; if it actually says something (the cronies go-run-hide when real chaos emerges).
- People on both Orange and Blue sides are coming round to the idea that there needs to be a Constitutional Convention, before the Elections, to decide which of the laws passed by the, technically dismissed, Verkhovna Rada to keep – some are quite good - as well as to agree a proper electoral law
- The move to ‘Parliamentary’ over Executive Presidential government seems unstoppable
- At some point, one side has to lose and that will be when the ‘fun’ will begin.
Yuschenko? Sell / Yanukovych becoming a statesman in spite of himself? Buy
Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, Dariga Nazarbaeva and her husband, Rakhat Aliyev, have finally cut the cord and are striving for political power themselves. Now, personally, I think the son-in-law is a scum-bag (only my opinion, natch, and one I'll have to...ahem...revise, I guess, if he emerges victorious) and my people in Astana say some serious locals are backing away from her Institute of International Modern Politics (the well-funded, if shadowy, ‘NGO’ that is really her prototype opposition party HQ): daughter number one seems to have seriously miscalculated.
Kazakhstani Offspring? Sell.
Whatever else you might think about her father – no prize from the Kennedy School of Government for developing pluralist democracy, maybe – Nursultan Nazarbayev is probably the best and most successful statesman to have emerged from the collapse of the USSR: and yes, that includes VVP. He is genuinely respected amongst the Kazakhstani, especially the ethnic Kazakhs, and has prevailed over staggering economic transformation and a much better civil rights environment than any of the other ‘Stans.
President for Life? Buy
Meanwhile, in Moscow – to which I flew back Sunday night - apparently the gays had been at it again…lemming-like, a small band seems intent on inviting disaster upon themselves. This annual ‘gay riot’ photo-opportunity has already got tiresome… Personally I think every ‘world city’ benefits from a pink-quartier, but this is Moscow, people. Never, ever, here.
Civil rights are a tricky thing. Martin Luther King dragged America towards the civilized treatment of its fellow citizens. But for him, and heroes like Rosa Parks, American blacks would not have the civil rights they have today (whether they can afford to enjoy them being, of course, another thing….). They got those rights through protest.
But in the case of gay rights, the Russian gay community has to consider this: it is clinging on to the decriminalization of homosexuality by its fingertips. By going out to ask for more rights, it might just lose the one ‘right’ it has.
As I recall, a Bill, introduced February 12th by Liberal Democratic Party Deputy, Nikolai Kuryanovich, sits before the State Duma to repeal the decriminalization of homosexuality. So far, I believe, the Government lets it linger there actif, mais en repose. Kuryanovich – who is not exactly the most liberal human being imaginable – has a penchant for popularist legislation: not long ago he proposed stripping citizenship for any Russian woman who married a foreigner.
This is not an area of policy I follow, but I think there is a 30-40% chance that, if United Russia senses that an extra dose of popularist measures is needed before the Duma elections in December, the Bill could well be activated and passed. Such a move would be wildly popular with the Russian electorate – the bit that actually votes that is - which would never have supported the decriminalization of homosexuality in the first place (one of the noteworthy examples, actually, of how Yeltsin’s Young Turks led liberalism in Russia, rather than reflected it).
Rather than protest in the streets, Russian gays would be best advised to lay low until this political cycle is over and the Duma/Presidential elections completed. Alternatively, they might consider moving abroad.
La vie en rose? Hold/Sell
Saturday, 26 May 2007
Just a bad day, politically, or the start of something more interesting?
From the updated Foreign & Commonwealth Office Travel Advice for Ukraine, posted tonight:
"Political Situation
The political situation has been tense since the President dissolved parliament on 02 April 2007. Visitors should avoid political demonstrations. There are reports that internal troops may be deployed to the capital on 26 May 2007."
....
I have been out and about Kyiv today seeing what's going on. Although it is now getting dark and many are pretty boozed up - it's the start of a three day holiday here and the annual Kyiv Day celebrations in downtown - everything is as it should be.
Actually, while the security forces on the streets are about average in number, all the embassies have their diplomatic cars out front...they're all working, which they don't usually do on a Saturday.
If anything, I thought Kyiv Day crowds were smaller than on the last two Kyiv Days I have seen. I think as reports hit Ukrainian media this morning that the President had ordered Interior Ministry troops to the capital, some people decided to stay out of the centre of town.
I am thinking of extending my stay in Kyiv: I smell coup d'etat in the air...but I have tickets for the Bolshoi tomorrow in Moscow...decisions, decisions...
I'll post about the UKR situation tomorrow; based on a fascinating lunch I had Friday...
For the time being the situation I think was best summed up by a contact I have at an Embassy: "What is Yush doing? Oh Boy, has he gone 'off the reservation' on this one!"
"Political Situation
The political situation has been tense since the President dissolved parliament on 02 April 2007. Visitors should avoid political demonstrations. There are reports that internal troops may be deployed to the capital on 26 May 2007."
....
I have been out and about Kyiv today seeing what's going on. Although it is now getting dark and many are pretty boozed up - it's the start of a three day holiday here and the annual Kyiv Day celebrations in downtown - everything is as it should be.
Actually, while the security forces on the streets are about average in number, all the embassies have their diplomatic cars out front...they're all working, which they don't usually do on a Saturday.
If anything, I thought Kyiv Day crowds were smaller than on the last two Kyiv Days I have seen. I think as reports hit Ukrainian media this morning that the President had ordered Interior Ministry troops to the capital, some people decided to stay out of the centre of town.
I am thinking of extending my stay in Kyiv: I smell coup d'etat in the air...but I have tickets for the Bolshoi tomorrow in Moscow...decisions, decisions...
I'll post about the UKR situation tomorrow; based on a fascinating lunch I had Friday...
For the time being the situation I think was best summed up by a contact I have at an Embassy: "What is Yush doing? Oh Boy, has he gone 'off the reservation' on this one!"
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