Red Exile isn't dead - he's just been distracted...

So 'real life' has intervened in the last few weeks in the shape of punishing work schedule; quite a lot of travel; a friend (and her 46kg dog) temporarily moving in and - which has been very stressy - the search for new offices in Moscow.

of course there comes a point, blog-wise, where after a longish absence it almost becomes intimidating to do the 'here's what I've been doing' catch-up post. I have got over this, however, by just dumping highlights from my facebook account. So here we go (with more shockingly bad photography from my handheld PDA), the recent past:

Yesterday

Red Exile is spending another public holiday in the office; surprised how humid it is outside, which is early in the season.
1:43pm
May 1
I was in Prague on business
Red Exile says: "If I should die think only this of me"... I like Shiraz with my chocolate course.
12:25am
April 30

Red Exile is watching the night twinkle on the Danube; a glass of bubbles to hand; a violin being played in the background.
10:40pm

Red Exile says "OK, so there is some football match coming up in Moscow? No, I don't have tickets and I gather the street price is edging towards Euros 1,000" - crazy! Since 'Chelski' has now won a place in this match, I am told the price is now Euros 4,500 for non-VIP tickets.
3:34pm

Red Exile does not have a PhD in applied sciences and therefore is struggling to work the shower in his hotel bedroom. Which was the Four Seasons - which is superb - and it's restaurant, Allegro, quite unbelievably good (and the holder of Prague's first and only Michelin star)
9:09am
Red Exile I have a table with a view; a pigeon breast; a 1/2 bottle of Côte Rotie: I love life, Prague & everything…
10:53pm

Red Exile is now over a bumpy flight - and normal, smiley service is resumed. We thank you for your patience in this temporary service difficulty.
9:39pm

Red Exile I have *never* thought of the Czechs as other than opportunists and wasters and, 30 minutes in, 4 yrs l8r, I see I was right! I am inclined to be in a very bad mood after landing - partly angry at myself for having been so scared 'up there', which is silly, and partly (justifiably) because Czech immigration, clearing flights in from China and Russia, didn't open the EU Citizens line; until people like me pointed out how crazy it was that we'd have to queue with all the non-EU citizens being admitted with visas. Also, the taxi system sucks.
8:18pm

Red Exile says the plane is what? Late?!? Arrgh!
5:24pm

Red Exile Has now had Aeroflot baked goods and a drink so calmer, checked in and now only to ponder age of plane about to fly...
4:30pm

Red Exile says my life is *so stressful* it is no wonder I have high blood pressure and the heart of an 80 yr old. *Made plane just on time*.
4:16pm

Red Exile hopes everyone enjoys Thursday's neo-cold war parade - cos rehearsals for it have screwed Moscow traffic even more than usual & I am l8 4 plane. The parade is 9th May actually. That didn't make the traffic less sucky.
3:02pm

Red Exile notes that one of his two female house guests is on heat. The 46kg, 4-legged one. Words cannot express... They're moving on Monday. When my mother arrives... I don't get my apartment to myself for another two weeks...
10:19am
April 28

Red Exile is off to a business lunch in brilliant sunshine.
12:00pm

Red Exile added a new photo to New offices - bought 'off-plan': what can go wrong? OK, so the building is still a 'work in progress' in a completely gutted, exterior cladding yet to be junked and re-done and completely needs rewiring and plumbing kind-of-way. But the developer *promises* me it will be ready for entry June 1st. This is good: our current lease expires 31st May.
11:46am

Red Exile Madama Butterfly / Stanislavski etc: tonight Irina Arkad'eva was *a goddess*. Act 2 finale a weepy *triumph*!
10:15pm

Red Exile is @ v. gd performance of Madama Butterfly, fuelling up before original 2hr version of Act2.
8:08pm

Red Exile is at the opera, Madama Butterfly, eyeing chandeliers warily... see April 18th for the last comment to make sense.
6:37pm

Red Exile has discovered of himself that the pathology of his fear of flying is fear of heights. He discovered this in the glass lift of Moscow's uber-elitny Lotte Plaza.
5:30pm

Red Exile Apropos his new office space, a mantra: elitny. Designerny. Loftny. *Not Pafosny*. Pafosny? Think Paris Hilton, Donatella Versace, Las Vegas and anything by Dolce & Gabbana. yes, that's right 'gay' (in the sense US highschoolers use the term) and achingly vulgar.
2:24pm

Red Exile has signed an office lease!! Designer space; central & official. Yay!

7:30pm


Red Exile is so-near-and-yet-so-far. Do we have a lease deal or not?!?!
3:42pm


Red Exile was feeling wildly exuberant; but is now back under control to face the day's trials.
9:34am
April 24

Red Exile is an idiot! Left ballet ticket @home! So sulking shopped at Tsum & now @Cafe Bar-boy... which is what one of the girls I know Christened café des artistes - the name just stuck somehow

7:46pm

Red Exile is off to the ballet tonight. German State Rhine company. Stravinsky. Rites of Spring. A dose of sanity and love in my fraught life.
5:18pm

Red Exile "To the FSB senior officer whose convoy cut me up today but then whose car was pranged by his own follow vehicle not breaking fast enough: hah! Tosser LOL". This was really too funny to watch. Made my morning actually...
10:34am
April 23

Red Exile actually dares hope there *might* be a glimmer of hope. On the property side of things...
11:11pm

Red Exile has had, in truth, a $*#@ing shite day; and sometimes feels all the burden is on him as (some) just swish about... no doubt his default inner cheeriness will be back o/night. I was stressed, just leaving the office, over-worked and miserable. It happens...
9:29pm

Red Exile just came up with a strategy "find a 30-something woman, make her pretty and let's get her to cry on television" and is concerned that he doesn't feel cheap. It was a good strategy. And I am not cheap... 400 Euros an hour baby!
12:04pm
April 22

I was in Warsaw -I am not hugely fond of Warsaw...
Red Exile has too much work to do and no time to do it.
11:22pm

Red Exile has turned down the chance to eat escalope of crocodile. No kidding - it's available at the Intercontinental Hotel Tower's Mexican restaurant (don't ask!). The public space is crappy in this hotel, but the rooms are great and the view always good (well as good as a view over Warsaw can ever be).
2:58pm


Red Exile says: "well *hello!* Aeroflot you sexy thang!". They're flying brand-new A320-200s into CEE. Eat me, BA!
9:41pm

Red Exile knows he has lived in Russia too long: he finds the baked goods in the Aeroflot business lounge quite irresistibly alluring.
5:31pm

Red Exile setting of for the traditional traffic jam to Sheremetyevo airport, to fly Aeroflot to Warsaw. Ah the glamour of it all...
2:54pm

Red Exile has narrowly missed *death* at the ballet. An 8-cm diameter crystal fell from the great central chandelier and missed my head by inches before smashing on ground in 100s pieces. Felt cold draft of death did we. This really happened and the lump of crystal missed my head by less than 30 cms
8:06pm

Red Exile is off to the Stanislaski-Nemirovich-Danchenko tonight 2 them dance Romeo & Juliet.
5:26pm
April 18

Red Exile wonders if the 'rock song' whose chorus is "are you off your meds?: is Placebo. He laughs & luvs it. It is and I downloaded it from iTunes.
11:40pm

Red Exile is off to dinner with a mate from 'the small island'...as I now refer to the Britain
7:03pm

Red Exile has just used his best BBC voice to voice-over a TNK-BP corporate video. This is the second time I have done this (just to help them out for a favour - because it is crazy expensive for them to have it done in London and any old Brit RP voice will do - and because, in more weighty and feesome matters, they are also a client)
10:43am
April 15

I was travelling in Ukraine
Red Exile sees this new overnight train comes with anti-terrorism advice. In the event security forces are going to storm your Chechen terrorists "run-like-f*ck in other direction" seems to be the ambivalent advice. On the new trains there is a poster by the loos with safety advice. This include in cute little pictures what to do if security forces are storming your high-jacked train. And, yes, run in the opposite direction is the helpful guidance they proffer...
6:38am

Red Exile is witnessing drama @ border; 2 men arrested & dragged off train by Ukrainian troops. Unpaid parking tickets? Very exciting and the full-on paramilitary performance...
12:44am
April 14

Red Exile and his friend, Johnny Walker, are at the Russian border - for processing. LOL
11:50pm

Red Exile has had his day ruined - 'new' landlord informs him he has been gazumped on new space. So back to Square one and now 5 weeks to Moscow office is homeless... This was a low moment
7:32pm


Red Exile is having a very good day commercially and meteorologically: it is a gorgeous sunny day in Kyiv; the sky is almost ridiculously blue.
2:13pm


Red Exile now has a very deep and abiding love of Ukraine; its tragic and compelling history - the more you get to know it the less like Russia it is.

You learn a lot about Ukraine in the long drive between Kyiv and Lviv and back - abandoned villages and the wrecks of old collective farms testifying to the waste of Collectivised farming, it's failure and - actually - the enormous post-Soviet decline in Ukrainian agricultural output. Land reform is desperately needed to modernise and rejuvenate Ukrainian agriculture.

At the same time, as you drive past vast, pompous - but now sadly forlorn - Soviet-era memorials to WWII (more to bludgeon home a message of loyalty to the Ukrainians than a message of celebration) you realise how awful it must have been to be Ukrainian and part of the USSR. Wondering around Lviv today it is almost impossible to imagine that this bright, smiley, European city was once Soviet. It is totally unlike anything in Russia.
1:02am
April 13

Red Exile is about to have a hearty lunch of Turkey liver; veal, sour cream & dumplings & all trimmings. It is not cuisine minceur, but do eat at café Amadeus.
1:45pm
April 12

Red Exile is enjoying his birthday in Lviv, in which the whole history of Middle Europe can be seen. The ebb and flow of empires; the heterogeneous sweep of its European architecture; but still defiantly European (Renaissance, Baroque, Neo-classical, Art Nouveau...)
8:28pm
April 11


Red Exile is enjoying cafe society in Lviv; which is charming. Drinking champagne, sitting outside at the Vienna Café where people-watching is great fun
11:30pm

Red Exile is leaving lunchtime for the 5hr roadtrip to Lviv. The guy driving asks "do you want 'fast' or 'safe'?" - what the heck: fast! LOL.
12:30pm
April 10

Red Exile is having a fascinating day in Kyiv.
6:10pm

Red Exile s at the UKR border post, on the train, watching a beautiful sunrise. He is now though hungry & *very* thirsty!
6:29am
April 9

Red Exile Has just realized that as he is on tne slow-overnight 'express' - 13hrs - inexplicably it has neither restaurant nor bar. Nightmare!! This is the second time I have done this! memo-to-self: only Train #1 (Moscow-Kyiv) and Train #2 (Kyiv Moscow) have buffet cars. The others *don't*
9:54pm

Red Exile en route to Kyiv & then Lviv.
8:40pm

Red Exile is somewhere between despair (back to office property square 1) and elation (deal done). Only in Moscow do we live by these 2 emotional gears and no others. That last sentence, BTW, is probably the truest thing I have ever written about life in Moscow.
12:20pm
April 8

Red Exile did have to smile as he was cut up this morning by a rickety old Lada with *diplomatic plates*.
10:04am
April 7

Red Exile has had just the most sublime & wonderful night at the ballet; even if his body won't fly dream a soul can. Sometimes good performances make my purple-prose-restraint short-circuit.
10:26pm

Red Exile wonders what you say to a week that is pretty-much ruined before it has begun... hello? Property-related - a great development I was hoping to take was snaffled up - even though I had agreed terms with the developer - by a Russian bank.
10:15am
April 6

Red Exile woke up this morning dreaming about the future of capitalism. Last night he tried to dream about Tuscany. Oh well...
5:30pm
April 4

Red Exile is back to the drawing board: 8 weeks and counting to find new offices - or else it is hot desking in my front room! Another potential site fell-through (because this one was pretty far from a metro station and, in any case, I just learned that this particular station is about to close for a year's remont; which ruled the property out completely.
5:45pm
April 3

So there you have it. Normal service will now hopefully be resumed...

Official confirmation of the end of an era: Aeroflot and the Tupolev 134

This brokers note extract across the screens today:

Aeroflot sells Tupolev 134s
Rencap
March 31, 2008

Event: On Friday (28 Mar) Aeroflot announced the sale of its Tupolev 134 regional jets. Tu-134 has been furrowing the skies for more than 40 years but on 31 Dec 2007 the company stopped operating this type of aircraft. Nine of these planes were sold to Aeroflot subsidiaries: Aeroflot-Don, Aeroflot-Nord and Aeroflot-Plus; the company plans to sell the remaining five to external buyers. The average age of these aircrafts is 28 years old and they are priced at approximately $3mn.

Ah well. No more bone-shattering ‘lift-offs’ from the Soviet workhorse of the skies for Aeroflot. Um…not quite…it’s two main regional subsidiaries will still be using the Tupi for some time to come.

They have to. While, ahead of State Duma elections in December, there was lots of celebration of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 RJ – the planned replacement for the Tupi and set to be the Russian competitor to the Embraer and even the Boeing 737; the reality is that it is not even ready for test-flight yet.

But the Tupi had its charm: as I recorded in the back end of this post. The real writing on the wall came, though, when the EU closed its airspace to Tupolev 134s last year.

I wonder why? (PS: everyone survived this ‘incident’):

No, no, no (off topic, but MY topic): do not demonize the pilot

Amongst my many failures as a human being – I am Catholic, OK? (lovin’ it, BTW) so I embrace my lifetime in sin - is my rather schizoid fear of flying…

Like most Net-literate people, I have seen *that* video. Lufthansa. Hamburg.



No, no, no! The pilot did exactly what he should have. It was a bad flight – and, yeah, truly I would probably have shat myself if I had been on-board – but it was by no means ‘the one’ (you know, ‘the one’ – the flight all frequent flyers believe is their ‘number up’)

Gusty wind is gusty wind. It sucks. But the video is hugely misleading. The wing *did not* scrap the ground: we’d have body bags it if did.

Not a nice flight, but rest assured what you think is ‘impact smoke’ is just jet-back of runway surface water. Clearance levels were really better than they appear, filmed at that angle (I guesstimate above 5-7 feet: not nice, but not fatal).

Neither pilot nor ATC mis-performed and, in the cockpit, the captain would have yelled “TOGA”* in time.

* TOGA = “Take Off & Go Around”. In one client mandate, a rather infamous... um... actually ‘terrorist’ court case, I listened to the Cockpit Voice Recorders (CVRs) of several fatal air incidents – my fear of flying, as a non-pilot, I grant you ridiculously, started then – it is the ones where they yell “TOGA!!!”, followed by “arrgh, shit” etc., that leave a lifelong mark…

But this whole viral YouTube thing is a good example of how YouTube vid’, from a certain angle, displaces the possession of truth. Something, in a bunch of circumstances, we would do well to remember.

Upgradeski – the art of business class travel in Russia

Written in the business lounge at Moscow Sheremetyevo Terminal 1c (no wifi provided!) but posted from Kyiv

As either reader might recall I don’t much like flying. Terrified wouldn’t be a wholly inappropriate word; which makes one wonder why I have chosen the job I have. Anyway…

This morning I flew to Kyiv (the overnight train wasn’t an option this time, as I had a date at the Bolshoi last night). Being driven out to the airport, the weather deteriorated and I began to get that shuddering yawning that only comes, oddly, when I am very nervous.

The airline I am flying, while using Boeings, uses old ones. Old. Using my handy databank on my PDA, I will verify that the actual plane is between 25 and 30 years old (which is typical for the airline I am flying, for this route): they even still fly one which is now 33 years old.

Since this flight is only 100 minutes airborne we always buy economy class. But I decide to upgrade, at personal expense, to business. There are two reasons of logic for this:

- being personally convinced I will one day die in a plane crash, I would prefer to do it in business class (at least you’ll have more comfort for the last moments before the cleansing, ending bath of fire and the eviscerating shards of metal…)
- And the survival rates in business class are poor. In the event of a serious incident you will die, but it will at least be quick. Behind the curtain is the possibility of agonizing survival; or not quite.

So I arrive at the airport and go to the ticket desk to upgrade.

Sad smile and shrug; says he: “it is impossible. Komputers all no work today. You pay cash?”

Gentle frown before helpful smile, says I: “Gosh. How unfortunate. Yes I pay cash”

Eager school-boy frown, I continue: “Perhaps if I pay cash you can sort out all the paperwork when your computers work again?”

Light-bulb moment: “yes, that might work. You come with me”

We set off and find an official who may be Airline or maybe State but, as is often the case in Russia, is probably a bit of both. I am a друг (friend) apparently. That’s nice.

A sum is ventured (“the official fee of course”) and a small cash transaction occurs discreetly, elegantly: it is what passports are for.


Holding my passport and new ticket (“sorry, mister, no receipt possible; Komputers all no work”), 10 minutes later, this official (partly Airline, partly State) walks me through customs; with much shaking of hands. I am asked no troubling questions.

I am led to check-in and am checked in immediately, ahead of everyone else (mercifully, at this moment all the Komputers seem to have begun to operate again!). I say goodbye to my friend and settle into this lounge, after being assisted through Immigration. I look at my ticket and boarding pass. I am now, it seems, a government official with a VIP pass.

This being me, a thought crosses my mind. If something does occur, and they’re identifying my body, they’ll wonder why, with my British passport and my un-Russian name, I was on seemingly on Russian state business.

That is how conspiracy theories start.

Postscript: Plane registration UR-BVY is, in fact, just 6 weeks short of its 26th birthday.

Russian arms exports

This magnificent beast below is the Su-34 fighter-bomber (NATO Ident: “Fullback”). Aficionados of big, hairy weapons systems (and I am not one) say that it creams the F-16 in performance terms.



According to Kommersant today, Australia is thinking of buying them too. Obviously Australia isn’t a part of NATO – small issue of geography there – but they have snuggled up close to it.

Which begs the question about interoperability: the slightly spooky RAND Corporation has written well on this issue.

But can you imagine the hullabaloo amongst the US right / military if the Aussies buy Ruskie? That would be fun to watch…

Highlights and lowlights – a week past

Very good moments:

Dinner with a chum I haven’t seen in six years, La Cigale du Recamier, Paris.

I love the food here and, although I am only in Paris about ten nights a year, I feel slightly boring that I insist I dine here for half of them; but this place *is* Paris dining for me. Although I have no writing talent, when I ‘cash out’, I plan to de-funge here and toil at my lite-weight, auto-bio. It is very post-modern, literary… but also comfy and I love the food and the wine list…

Guest: “have you seen la Comtesse [most gorgeously grand, and improbably good, if wildly eccentric, friend] she always asks about you…you used to vacation together… she used to say you would have made a lovely art historian…you know she sold the Rome apartment…to a Fendi sister…you used to go there together a lot, no?”

Me: “…She never got over the shock of Michael Portillo’s ‘coming out’; but her cousin in the Vatican is a friend of one of mine there… yes she did… we did…the downstairs is now the main shop in Rome [of a fashion brand]… we email occasionally – she hates email and says proper letters ‘maketh civilization’ and email cheapens us all – but we are having lunch New Year’s, in Rome, at her new place…”

Guest: “Why do you persist in living in Moscow? Come live in Paris. It would be much better for you… [we both do vaguely the same sort of work…I think mine is more interesting; he thinks it ‘no doubt envelope-pushing, but not quite the thing one should anchor oneself to]”

I think he used the phrase ‘envelope-pushing’ on purpose and not in a totally wholesome way. It is not true, BTW. About ‘envelopes’ and stuff… don't believe everything you read about Russia…

…Dinner started at 9.30 (ended before the Witching Hour though, because I had an 08.00 meeting). It began with vast apologies to Guest and maitre d’ both, as I was 45 minutes late ([in French, from the back of the hotel car]:

“Please send a bottle of Veuve to our table and ask him to order… the driver says I am ETA 20 minutes…so please take his order, and hopefully I’ll in arrive in time. I’ll have the fois gras and the soufflé with mustard sauce – you still do that yes? [they did] And your recommended Gigondas please; but please decant it*…sorry again!)

* our French place is hard by Gigondas, so I know what will be guaranteed He’ll like, so asking for it to be decanted is not pretension, just being practical (wine snobs are bores but inverse-wine snobs are immensely the more dreary, so get over yourselves).

We hadn’t had dinner, or anything other than a quick coffee at Heathrow, for six years. Now married, bred x two…committed to living in France…utterly happy. I envy him. He has matured: in comparison to him I see I haven’t matured. I am still a spoilt little boy. The curse of being an only child.

Guest: “So… have you exorcised all your Caribbean ghosts? We never thought that world was quite you. You should you come back to civilized Europe and all we [he really said this] stand for”

Me: “Actually, Moscow *is * civilized Europe, but I know what you mean… Haiti? Guadeloupe? Forgotten completely… Utterly forgotten.

“But I am not done with Moscow quite yet. I have something and someone there important to me. Things to do…goals… [etc]”.

--------

Highlights:

Meeting some lovely friends at Bar des Amis on Wednesday night in London - I was briefly passing through the UK for a few hours – everyone’s children are growing up so fast. One friend – admittedly after second bottle of Nuit Saint Georges – I told ‘you and [wife] *must* come visit me in Moscow, I’ll be the perfect host and we’ll scoot up to St Pete’s and stay at my favorite hotel in Russia’.

Lowlights:

To be chanted, to a piano piece by Philip Glass:

“I hate BAE 146s
I hate BAE 146s
I hate BAE 146s
I hate BAE 146s
BAE 146s hate them,
yes I most certainly do”

For inspiration, herewith a piano piece composed by Philip Glass… swoons…



Anyway, BAE 146s! Scariest freakin’ engines noises on the air-borne planet. And I really don’t like ‘yanking and banking’ that low over Southern London – all too reminiscent of:



When you are *that low* over London city tower blocks…it is horrid… did I say the Orly – London City airport by Air France was useful? Poke out my eyes! The noise the tiny-weeny engines make as they rev down for descent. Loathsome.

Mid-light:

In London, at my usual (really I suppose pretty regular) hotel, they don’t charge me for any of my bar bill, “you’re family sir, welcome back…is it cold in Moscow?...”

Oh. But the meetings all this travel was for? Apparently my bosses think I did good. The meetings were easy Compared to all the flying: I am going to have to go back on the tranquilizers when I fly this much again…

Modern life...

My life-planning seems to have crunched a gear. Having spent all weekend working in the office (albeit enlivened by a great evening at the Bolshoi Sunday), the rest of the week is now looking pretty horrendous.

I am about to leave for the airport to Paris (two meetings on arrival, from about 6pm local time, interviewing people for jobs here in Moscow as it happens). Then, on Wednesday, an early morning, lengthy and important meeting before flying from Orly – a much easier airport than CdG – to London City airport, for a crucial (and likely to be very lengthy) meeting there.

My working day will begin about 08.00 Paris and end about 20.00 London (or 23.00, my body will think, as I will be running on Moscow time). NB: yes, I would have preferred to Eurostar – anything to avoid flying – but central Paris, to the City of London, is definitely quicker (in the middle of the day when Eurostar-ers clearly like a long lunch) to fly Air France to City airport. That’s City airport: go to Heathrow and your scheduling will be screwed (and you might have well as crossed the channel by steam ship).

Thursday and I am on the 08.00 BA flight to Kyiv; hopefully landing in time to go give a speech at a conference (I would have cut this, but apparently we’re sponsoring and I can’t get out of it). After the sponsors’ reception, I will head straight to Kyiv station for the overnight train to Moscow. With a fair wind we will have cleared first the Ukrainian and then the Russian border posts by about 01.00 Moscow time and then I can then sleep before the 05.30 wake up and arrival into Moscow shortly thereafter, early on Friday morning. And a full day of meetings.

When I started in my career, and decided I wanted it to be as international as could be, business trips tended to be ‘fly out the night before, dinner (sampling local culture), meeting, local networking lunch, afternoon flight home’. Now it’s five countries in four days and subsisting on airport food. Moreover, in the days before email – I am that old – business trips were rather decorous uninterrupted, thought-provoking affairs. These days, one has still to carve out 6-8 hours a day processing email traffic. It is what you do now, in airport lounges, on planes and, yes, even in the backs of taxis and before grabbing a few hours’ sleep. This is progress apparently.

Cargo plane crash kills seven at Moscow airport

"The plane, which belonged to the cargo airline Atran, was built in 1964..."

It was 43 years old.

Full report here and here.

A quick catch-up on the last three weeks

29th June – last flight?

By now you must have figured I have become very scared of flying. This is despite the fact that I estimate that I have easily done over 300 international flights since moving to Moscow in Spring 2004 and; in my lifetime? Easily over 1,000 (I was an ex-pat brat).

Anyway, something snapped when I took the afternoon AeroSvit from Kyiv to Moscow. We landed in the immediate prelude to a huge thunder storm. On landing the plane was wildly erratic and at less than 50 metres I would judge the engines roared and we did a go around. Having landed on the second attempt, and exiting the plane there was this huge downward gust of pressure – wind shear: the invisible plane killer.



Wind shear scares me silly out here: CIS airports almost never have, I’m told, wind shear radar on the ground and these twenty-five year old Boeings and the Soviet planes don’t have on-board wind shear detectors.

So, suddenly, dust and rubbish shot up into the end before a squal of blackness crossed across the runway. As we bussed into Terminal 1c you couldn't actually see terminal 2 – just straight across the runway – because visibility sank to nothing as a huge storm crack overhead and the heavens opened…

…and I have not been on a plane since. A whole month without flight (when I normally do three flights a week). I have to do something about this, because soon my bosses will notice…I recently asked my Chief of Staff to look into taking the Moscow-Budapest-Moscow train for a Board conference in September: madness! But might be kind of fun…there’s something sexy and glamorous about Eastern European train travel (well not if you’re not in first class, granted), which air travel these days can’t match (except on those long, epicurean and pampering transcontinental flights to the Middle East).

I have done three trips to Kyiv. Each by train. Train #1 out of Moscow (dep 23.20, arr. 08.30) and Train #2 out of Kyiv on the way back (dep. 20.17, arr. 06.39). I always book a twin-person carriage for myself and usually now take a small night-time picnic,

Customs and immigration out of Russia, in Souzemka, and Khoutir-Mikhailivskiy in Ukraine are a pain (the towns are 20 minutes apart and the Russian side is very slow, but at least they come on board to your carriage). They wake you up at around 1.00am back into Russia, but I get back to sleep afterwards; on the way in, the wake up is 4.00am (finishing around 5.00am) and so I watch dawn in Ukraine, not bothering to go back to sleep.

The Ukrainian side also now have PDAs (which is why they are faster than the Russians) so are able to do onboard registration on my entry (whereas the Russians have to alight from the train and call in my visa details for clearance).

6th July – weird things

I had been in Kyiv again (actually I have dropped by the office for a couple of days every week over the last month) and had a very interesting meeting with a future force in Ukrainian politics, now launching his own NGO: he’s a very high-powered local lawyer.

The Ambassador of a small Central European country and I share the same taste in whiskey…and bars. He’s become quite my regular drinking/talking global politics buddy. For some reason I think this very cool...

At 1.30am – waiting to enter Russia, I am awake on the train and a journalist friend calls from Doha, in Qatar. And we’re chatting – via satellites bouncing a signal Lord knows where – me being all George Smiley on my post-Soviet overnight train and yet, also, chatting to a mate at a party in the Middle East…

…who then worried me because he was heading out on a trip with Hezbollah into Southern Lebanon. Now this is a patch I know (and if you know Lebanon well, Hezbollah is all part of the scene) and I say: “Dude, down to Sidon, you’ll be fine, just stay north of Sidon” “er…” he replies, “I am going well South of Sidon”.

So we chat and I point out that while his employer might be an Arabic TV station, he’s a blonde English guy and the Hezbs in Southern Lebanon aren’t the diplomatic dandies in Beirut we know, but are ‘the real thing’ and might not welcome a Brit. That and the Israelis have been shooting at TV cars across the borderline (because sometimes Hezb pretends to be TV). So I was kind of worried for my friend…

We spoke a week later, he partying in Damascus – damn I love that City – and he clearly has some good war-stories: being shoved into a cell overnight with armed guards for instance: “but we got some great shots and broadcast live way farther South than the BBC or CNN would ever dare”…which is what passes for delivering understanding into global living rooms apparently.

8th July Spartak!

A one-night only special starring the Cuban ballet star Carlos Acosta. There is a good piece about this on Russia Today (LOL – that’s a sentence hardly ever used!).

Acosta was quite extraordinary and, as I was chatting with a friend afterwards in post-performance dinner at café des Artistes, sitting outside, we agreed it was one of the highlights of the Bolshoi this season…and then Acosta comes to the restaurant with a small entourage. He’s charming and has excellent English (he’s danced with the English National and the Royal). He’ll be guest-starring with the Bolshoi this Summer at Covent Garden in London. Mug or steal yourself a ticket if you’ll be in town…

Tonight – 22nd July – I am going to the Close of Season Gala Concert, with all the leading Bolshoi Ballet stars. It should be a wonderful night…but then no Bolshoi until October 5th…

…I must travel abroad – the summer ballets put on at the country estates outside Moscow are very bourgeois and ‘chocolate box-y’.

Now then, how to get from Moscow to London, without flying, by train…

Too dangerous to fly to Europe but fine to fly here?

Interesting thing caught my eye in Kommersant: the Russian Federal aviation agency, Rosaviatsia, and supervision watchdog, Rostransnadzor, has issued bans and restrictions on a whole bunch of Russian airlines (or planes within their fleets) from flying into EU airspace.

These include Russia’s 4th largest airline, UTair (whose plane tragically crashed in Samara earlier this year); as well as KrasAir’s Tu-134 fleet. KrasAir is not only the 6th largest airline in Russia; it is also, through AirUnion, the proud new owner of Malev, Hungary’s flag-carrier.

The Russian self-imposed bans come ahead of the usual quarterly update on the ‘no fly’ list issued by the EU. Last time, while no Russkie airlines were banned, a number were warned they were jolly close to it. It provoked a furious reaction from the Russian authorities (which then lamely started to fantasize about poor flying skills of EU pilots in Russian airspace). They abandoned this stance when UTair 471 slammed into the ground just 48 hours later…

My point though is this. While I recognize that being declared ‘unsafe’ by the EU is not the same as being ‘dangerous’ per se; why does Russia preemptively agree with the EU that these airlines or planes are not fit for international airspace, but allow them still to fly in Russia?

As we enter the busiest season for Russian aviation, some planes – including those banned from EU airspace and their carriers – will be put on extra routes or these airlines will use older planes not regularly used, to cope with passenger numbers and holiday charters.

Fingers crossed everyone…

PS: read Arseniy Rastorguev, on that BBC Russian-alcohol-storm thing yesterday which I think nicely captures the frustration of Russia's 'bright young things' about what the West says about them, coupled with a certain sense of gloom, nonetheless, about their own country.

Flights of fancy, booze and other lies

Rumours abound that Aeroflot may, just may be about to pull its bid for Alitalia. Maybe there is some sanity in the financial markets after all… Both readers might recall that, at the time this deal was announced I thought it a scabrous pustule of economic-logic-defying banker-greed….

Kommersant reported today that despite the rumours, the deal was still on but the picture seems very confused. Bluntly all the noise that the bid will be pulled this Saturday – when the Aeroflot Board meets – is coming from ‘informed sources’, behind the scenes. The denial comes on-the-record from the Aeroflot press office.

Ah…on the record…press office. In more...ahem...Sovietique Russian companies the press office is always the last to be told anything: this is not so much so that they tell an untruth in all innocence; more because they are so low in the food-chain that the ‘big swinging dicks’ – as we used to say in my banker days – simply forget their existence.

Alitalia says the deal is still on – like you tell the bride beforehand that she’s about to be jilted at the altar – and Unicredito, the lead bankers? Silent as the freakin' grave (calculating their deal-cancellation compensation no doubt). If Aeroflot pulls out I think they’ll only be one bidder left, LOL, a discount airline of rather shallow balance sheet.

Deal off or on. It’s still a crap deal for Aeroflot. But I think the deal will be off…

In matters so much more weighty, the European Parliament spent today debating what exactly is Vodka, when sold in the EU – really important stuff eh?

Politically, the EU divides into the vodka bloc (Poles, Balts) who want only grain- and potato-based spirits (over 40% proof?) to be called Vodka. The Wine bloc – those soft southerners want a broader-based definition: for instance, they make vodka from things like sugar-cane – er…isn’t that rum? – and grapefruit mash. Nice.

Apparently the third bloc is the beer bloc. Yes, Germany, Czech and the other Easties held the swing vote and refused to give protection to the ‘purity’ of Polish vodka.

Requests that ‘Vodka’ be geographic in its definition (like Champagne) had long been refused; although someone suggested that there be a definition between Vodka (generic) and Wodka (geographic)…it died as an idea a long time ago.

The Russian delegation to the EU denies it ever asked that Vodka can be called vodka even if made from meths or industrial alcohol … ;-)

Speaking of alcohol. There has been an extraordinary storm in the Russian blogosphere today. Young Russians – especially in medialand and politics – were really pissed off at the BBC story at their drinking habits. So, in a fit of irony – how Russian no? – they crashed the BBC Russian Service poll; as a friend alerted me:

"You might already know about that, though we want to alert you about a joke spread over in ICQ and blogs community about BBC Russia poll on drinking habits.
ICQ users spread the following message (please see below in Russian) to their contact list saying ‘Let’s surprise BBC: choose ‘Regularly’ in the poll section on the page http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/russia/newsid_6755000/6755283.stm.

Удивим БиБиСи!
проголосуй "регулярно" и перешли дальше: http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/russian/russia/newsid_6755000/6755283.stm
(голосовать в правой части страницы)

As you can see, the results of the poll demonstrate that almost 90% of audience does drink antifreeze and technical liquids containing spirits on a regular basis... There are around 1700 people who voted already)."

But it gets better. The BBC – not liking the answers coming out – then *deleted the votes cast* to start again. Oh yes – BBC mates confirm it – they *deleted results they didn’t like*. So much for reporting it as it really happens eh? BBC? Bent and Basically Censored.

Dumbest corporate decision ever???

Huge amounts of nonsense are being written about Aeroflot on the news that it is to mount a bid for Alitalia. Mostly this is a lame excuse by lazy business news editors, desperate for an Easter break, to stuff some column inches without too much effort [NB: Orthodox and Occidental Easters are at the same time this year, how rare is that?]. For the most part they will write some tired old crap about la dolce vita of the skies being snapped up by Air Kremlin. As I said, crap. But evocative, have-a-laugh-at-a-drinks-party crap.

In truth, though, there are few better examples of a corporate going where angels would fear to tread (but pesky investment bankers would push you anyway) than this deal. This is a very bad deal for Aeroflot; but (natch!) a great deal for the investment bankers.

To put it very briefly: Aeroflot is a sound business model, has rising demand, new jets on order, is (by far!) the safest CIS carrier and, moreover, has great business fundamentals and solid growth prospects. It is (while still a work-in-progress) a great turnaround story.

Alitalia is over-staffed, stuffed full of nasty unions, structurally inefficient (has a much older fleet than you might think) and, while we love Milan, is no-one's serious idea of a hot shot nation for tasty routes; drowning as it is in discount fare airlines.

By what tragic stretch of logic of which human's imagination does anyone think that Western Europe's most economically hopeless national flag carrier - Sabena having thankfully gone bust - would be a synergistic fit with the largest air carrier of Eurasia?

Logic? hah! hah!

Now unless there is something staggeringly sneaky about anti-trust and EU economic concentration rules going on here (you see, Air France has, for eons, been expected to buy Alitalia, but some have queried the...ahem...natural monopoly on Western European routes at issue: Air France already owning KLM and all), then this is crazy.

Actually, some cynics might argue there is a potential sweetheart deal here. Air France, Alitalia and Aeroflot are all members of Skyteam, along with a bunch of other second-rate airlines (declaration of interest: I am a silver card holder on Flying Blue; but then I am on the cusp of BA gold card and Lufthansa Senator too...I really must fly less).

Aeroflot will just never - never - make money on this deal. The Italian unions will screw them and (hello?) no-one wants to fly Alitalia anyway... Western European tourists have oodles of cheap airlines to choose from, to go to Italy from home, and seriously rich and corporate travellers, well... there are few airlines whose business class (take it from one who knows) is less alluring than Alitalia long haul.

So why is Aeroflot engaged in this flight of fancy folly?

Obvious I'm afraid... to keep up with the Joneski's. After two attempts, little old KrasAir, the surprisingly good and go-get airline of the Abramovich brothers (no relation to Chelsea-she's-young-enough-to-be-my-girlfriend-guy) has recently out-manoeuvred Aeroflot.

At its second attempt, AirUnion / KrasAir recently bought Malev; IMHO, Central Europe's cutest airline (declaration: I have a silver card there too).

Owning Malev offers AirUnion (the vehicle KrasAir is using) a unique hub: Krasnoyarsk. Where? You say: oh, Americans!... Krasnoyarsk makes loadsamoney from oil, OK? It's in Siberia. And it has great air-routes to China, Korea and other South East Asian destinations (and Moscow)...

...Malev, on the other hand, has great European routes and even a cute slot or two to North America (and is part of B.A.'s One World alliance). So, AirUnion (KrasAir) offers clever hub-to-hub and competitive fares from China to New York, via Moscow and Budapest (and virtually all places in between).

Moreover, the AirUnion franchise is even more potentially lucrative, if you note that (Boris) Abramovich is also behind Russia's first 'no frills' airline, Sky Express. Indeed, as global aviation goes, he really is one of its most innovative and entrepreneurial players.

Sweet deal for AirUnion (hats off! etc) so you can see why Aeroflot felt it had to do something...

But, boy!, should this not have been it!

Loss of Flight UT-471

Sadly yesterday we saw the first fatal air crash in Russia of 2007. UT Air Flight 471 crashed while attempting to land. Wikipedia, with grim efficiency, already has an entry on the incident.

Actually, this entry originally had an error in it (it happens, only occasionally, on Wikipedia). Citing an early Reuters report, it suggested that UT Air was banned by the European Union from flying to/in EU airspace, on safety grounds. This not true: there are no Russian airlines banned by the EU: the most up-to-date EU blacklist is here, so yours truly deleted this reference from the Wikipedia entry.

You can see the actual Tupolev 134A involved in this crash (library photo) here: Tu134-A, registration RA-65021 was thirty one years old. Russian Federal Transportation Minister, Igor Levitin, said in February this year that the aging Russian medium-haul airliners (Tu-154s and Tu-134s) would be phased out of commercial use within the next five years. The principal craft to replace them will be the Sukhoi 'SuperJet 100' RJ (regional jet), being built in conjunction with Finmeccanica / Alenia of Italy. The first jets should hit the skies for testing around 2009, although little birds tell me major commercial use of them won't happen until 2011/2012.

The cause of yesterday's UT Air accident is almost certainly pilot error: the cockpit crew seems to have brought the plane down short of the runway by about 400 metres, causing the plane to 'bounce' and flip. There is also talk of landing gear failure and the pilot actually attempting an emergency landing, but this is not currently confirmed.

In any case, the principal contributing factors will be pilot error (landing short) and bad weather (freezing fog). I am not sure if that airport, or for that matter the Tu-134A, have ILS - instrument landing system -to maintain the appropriate glide path in poor visibility; and as I understand it, this seems to have been almost a category IIIA landing ('blind' landing). Of course, though, even the old second generation 134s have radar (housed in the distinctive glass-windowed nose cone).

It was remarkable, actually, that so many people survived: however, the Tu-134, like other Tupolev's, shares its evolutionary background with the old Tu-16 bomber and they have all unusually strong hulls. Indeed, there is even recorded history of a Tu-154, operated by MALEV Hungarian Airlines, surviving after the pilots landed, having forgotten to lower the landing gear (link to Russian language report). Having hit the deck (and realised what had happened) the pilots revved up and took off again (metal sparking all over the runway), before going around and making a conventional landing). You try that in any Boeing or an Airbus and you will be a corpse.